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Bryce Harper (+500) is favored to win the 2019 National League
   Discussion: Bryce Harper (+500) is favored to win the 2019 National League
zhangzk · 3 years, 10 months ago
MVP award Nick Williams Jersey , but Mark Gallant has identified four value bets.Bounceback candidates Kris Bryant (+1200) and Corey Seager (+2500) are in perfect buy-low situations. See the other two players Gallant is eyeing.The American League MVP is kind of tough to bet on thanks to Mike Trout. The National League has no such conundrum, though.Nobody really has a Trout-esque ceiling in the NL. In fact, I would say that there are at least a few better all-around players in the AL than the NL’s best player — which is a title that is certainly up for debate.Since the field is more open, I believe there’s more opportunities to find betting value for the NL MVP. Especially because Bryce Harper, who I personally believe is overrated, is the favorite at +500.American League MVP Value Picks: Pair of High-Profile Shortstops Offering ValueRead nowMaybe you won’t agree with my picks, but first we’ll run through guidelines to follow if you plan on making your own.What to Look for When Making NL MVP PicksMultiple Tools and High CeilingMookie Betts actually posted a higher single-season fWAR in 2018 than Trout ever has.Like Trout, Betts boasts a very high ceiling thanks to his ability to contribute at the plate, in the field and on the base paths. If you don’t possess either of the latter two skills, it’ll be tough to accrue a high WAR. And sorry, even if you don’t like WAR, the voters are paying attention to it at this point.You want someone who Tyler Glasnow Jersey , if all things go right, can reach a WAR of at least 7-8.Here’s how many fWAR each of the 10 MVPs have had over the past five seasons:<7: 07-8: 58-9: 29-10: 210+: 1Power PotentialWhile it’s not a necessity, the ability to hit home runs is a key to winning MVP.I’m not saying that you need 40-HR power, but the ability to hit 25 or so makes a big difference. If you can hit 25 jacks, get on base a ton and hit a lot of doubles, you’re going to end up with a great slash line.Of the 36 position players to win MVP this millennium, only five have had fewer than 25 home runs: Jose Altuve (24 in 2017), Buster Posey (24 in 2012), Andrew McCutchen (21 in 2013), Dustin Pedroia (17 in 2008), Ichiro Suzuki (eight in 2001). And for what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure Suzuki and Pedroia wouldn’t win in this era with the type of seasons they had.2019 MLB Prop Bets: 10 Home Run Over/Under PicksRead nowAthleticismI think Miguel Cabrera is going to be the last guy for a long time to win the MVP and have the body of Babe Ruth.This kind of aligns with my first point: Older Adam Frazier Jersey , slower guys who don’t contribute (or potentially hurt their teams) on the base paths and in the field have a limited ceiling.Now let’s dig into the latest odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Harper and a few other names have already been hit by early bettors.National League MVP OddsValue NL MVP PicksKris Bryant +1200I liked Bryant to win the 2018 NL MVP … at +400.Looks pretty stupid in hindsight to be honest, but you can understand why I was happy to see him at +1200 this season.Much like Carlos Correa, Bryant is coming off the worst season of his career thanks to plaguing injuries. And there are actually many similarities between these two guys:I bet on them to win MVP in 2018 and 2019They both played about 2/3 of the 2018 seasonThey both dealt with injuriesThey both had career-worst home run totals, batting average, fWAR, hard-hit%, avg. exit velocity and HR/FB%They’re both oozing with value in 2019Correa dealt with a back problem and a deviated septum while Bryant dealt with a shoulder injury. Bryant is already saying there’s a “night and day” difference this spring and that his shoulder already feels completely better.2019 MLB Cheat Sheet: Betting Previews for All 30 Teams, Futures, Props, Picks and AnalysisRead nowWhile some folks might be scared because of his disappointing 2018, I believe that it’s only created value. I was able to find Bryant at +1500, so do some shopping.Corey Seager +2500While Bryant was able to play most of the season — albeit not at 100% — Seager was limited to just 26 games before being shelved for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.Seager also had arthroscopic hip surgery … which is honestly something you want to look for in all of your MVP candidates. Should’ve added that to the list at the top.Seager’s 2016 season , in which he won Rookie of the Year and finished third in MVP voting, saw him post an fWAR of 7.0. He finished with 5.9 in 2017. Last season was obviously lost, but when healthy, he’s one of a handful of guys in the National League capable of reaching an MVP ceiling.I’m not too concerned about his health at this point. And at 25-1, the fact that he missed most of 2018 has opened up lots of value. In fact, I’ve seen him at 50-1 at two other books! That’s what I got him at and I advise you to do the same.Ronald Acuna Jr +2500Acuna burst onto the scene in electrifying fashion last season. The Braves’ young slugger was bopping leadoff dongs left and right, finishing with 26 homers in just 111 games.He’s a little older (21), a little wiser and should be a little better at baseball in 2019.He’s already shown the ability to hit for power and draw walks, which is impressive for someone at his age. But where I think we’ll see more marked improvements is in the outfield. Acuna is fast and athletic, but his advanced metrics in left field weren’t very good. Experience should certainly help with that, and I’m sure it’s something they’re having him work hard on in spring training.With a potentially elite bat and an improved glove, Acuna could end up with a very high WAR. And if his Braves end up on top of a competitive NL East Ivan Nova Jersey , he could get a bit of a boost from the voters.Trea Turner +6000Perhaps overlooked thanks to Harper, Turner has developed into a very good all-around player. He played all 162 games in 2018 and ended up being the 14th-most valuable fielder and fourth-most valuable baserunner per FanGraphs.Add that together with an average bat and you get 4.8 fWAR: Great, but not excellent.I think his baserunning speaks for itself, as he was one of just eight players (of nearly 600) with a sprint speed of 30 feet per second or faster. His glove has gradually improved, but his bat has been kind of unpredictable.In an injury-shortened 2016, he posted a wRC+ of 146 in about half a season. The past two years have been a tick above league average.At 60-1, I’ll hold out some hope that his bat reaches its full potential and he stays healthy. Wiseguys had a big weekend as dogs won +15.44 units and teams getting 40% or fewer bets won +21.29 units.Sharps are buying low on three dogs tonight.Professional bettors are also getting down on an Under and a rare contrarian Over.It was a great weekend for MLB wiseguys. Sharp Report plays went a combined 4-1 on Saturday and Sunday. Overall, dogs went 16-15 (+9.38 units) and teams getting 40% or fewer bets went 17-9 (+15.44 units). Since the All-Star break, dogs getting 40% or fewer bets have gone聽46-46 (+21.29 units). Pro players will look to keep the good vibes going tonight.Rockies-Cardinals Betting Preview: All Signs Point To Under, But Ignore ThemRead nowAfter analyzing Monday鈥檚 small nine-game slate using Sports Insights鈥櫬燬portsbook Insider Pro聽betting tools,聽I鈥檝e pinpointed聽five MLB bets聽that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m. , 8:10 p.m., 10:05 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download聽The Action Network App聽to get real-time MLB odds and track your betsBetting Terms to KnowSteam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It鈥檚 a top smart money indicator.Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won鈥檛 budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.Full Sports Betting GlossaryPhiladelphia Phillies at Boston Red SoxSharp angles: Over 9First pitch 7:10 p.m. ETIn the most heavily bet game of the night, public bettors see a marquee pitching matchup聽 between Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.42 ERA) and David Price (11-6, 4.17 ERA) and automatically think low-scoring game. Currently, 72% of bets are taking the Under. This is extremely rare. You almost never see such heavy Under betting (public bettors usually gravitate to Overs).Despite the overwhelming Under betting, the total has remained frozen at 9. This indicates liability on the Over, with books reluctant to drop the line to 8.5 and hand out a better number to contrarian over backers. Wiseguys got down on the Over 9. An added bonus for Over backers: it’s a perfect night at Fenway, with wind blowing out to straightaway center.Get The EdgeLIMITED TIME OFFER - 60% OFFUnlock this article + all the EDGE benefitsTRY EDGE TODAYNow accepting&Already an EDGE member?聽Sign In
vynalori · 2 years, 3 months ago
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